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Trump’s Presidency Through Russia’s Eyes: Expectations, Calculations, Priorities

Commentary by Veronika Nechaeva
28 February 2025

As Donald Trump returns to the White House following his victory in the 2024 election, Russia’s government and expert community are trying to harbor no illusions about a breakthrough in U.S-Russian relations. While having rejoiced and exchanged congratulations on November the 6^th, the leadership is carefully considering its approach, balancing strategic caution with diplomatic maneuvering.

Kremlin’s Measured Approach

The Russian government remains wary of overestimating the impact of Trump’s return. The experience of his first presidency demonstrated that despite his rhetorical gestures toward improved relations with Russia, structural constraints, such as the Congress, the intelligence community, and bipartisan support for a tough stance on Moscow, prevented any significant détente. “Russia is “open to dialogue” but does not expect any fundamental shifts in U.S. policy” (Timofeev, 2024). The Kremlin acknowledges that Trump now enjoys greater control over the Republican Party and both houses of Congress. However, bipartisan consensus on containing Russia remains strong, limiting President Trump’s room for maneuver in regard to Russia.

Ukraine: Active Negotiations Underway

Regarding the Ukrainian crisis, although Trump’s rhetoric on Ukraine has centered on his willingness to end the war “within 24 hours,” Russian analysts were not expecting a swift resolution. It was argued that the U.S. would likely attempt to “freeze” the conflict rather than seek a deep settlement, maintaining a level of tension that benefits American strategic objectives. From Moscow’s perspective, this would serve U.S. interests by keeping Europe dependent on Washington for security while avoiding direct military confrontation with Russia.

However, events are now unfolding at an accelerated pace, with negotiations actively taking place. The first meeting between U.S. and Russian representatives was already held in Saudi Arabia, marking a critical step in potential future high-level discussions, including a direct meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin. According to the insights, Trump has expressed a desire to reach a ceasefire agreement by certain symbolic dates, a timeline that, if realized, could significantly impact the trajectory of the conflict.

Sanctions Removal as a Priority for Russian Side

One of Russia’s main priorities is the mitigation or removal of Western sanctions. Moscow sees Trump’s potential willingness to relax sanctions, at least selectively, as an opportunity to weaken the transatlantic unity that has sustained economic pressure on Russia. The Kremlin has repeatedly stated that sanctions are “illegal and must be lifted,” but realistically, officials understand that only partial relief is possible.

As U.S.-Russia negotiations progress, Russian businessmen and officials are closely monitoring potential economic impacts. Partial sanctions relief under Trump could boost investment in energy, finance, and aviation, reducing costs and improving long-term prospects. However, the Kremlin remains cautious, aware that U.S. commitments may be temporary or politically contested. A major trend in 2025 is Russia’s shift toward alternative markets, particularly China and the UAE, requiring businesses to navigate complex trade and financial structures. Changes in regulatory enforcement could disrupt sectors reliant on parallel imports and financial intermediation.

A key aspect of the discussion surrounding mitigation or removal of Western sanctions is the potential for secretive bilateral negotiations between Russia and the U.S., bypassing Ukraine and European powers. Moscow interprets Trump’s transactional approach to diplomacy as an opening for direct bargaining, where Russia might offer something in exchange for sanctions relief. However, as past experiences with U.S. sanctions, such as the Jackson-Vanik amendment, demonstrate, even if the Trump administration removes some restrictions, others may persist for years.

Russia’s Expectations on the U.S. Foreign Policy

On the U.S. foreign policy, Russia expects Trump’s focus to shift towards China and economic issues, which could lead to a relative decrease in U.S. engagement in the post-Soviet space. Russian analysts anticipate that while Central Asia might receive some attention, regions like the South Caucasus will likely see a continuation of existing U.S. policies rather than dramatic changes. The absence of a clear U.S. strategy in these areas could provide Moscow with opportunities to expand its influence where American involvement weakens. However, secondary sanctions, particularly on businesses in Russia-friendly nations such as Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Belarus, will remain a concern. Despite this, Russia’s economic previous adaptability, such as through parallel imports, alternative financial systems, and strategic partnerships with China, Turkey, and the UAE, suggests that even under continued pressure, Moscow can sustain its economic and military operations.

Geopolitical Objectives

Geopolitically, Russia seeks to push the U.S. into a serious discussion about European security architecture. The Kremlin’s ultimate goal seems to be to remove Ukraine from the Western sphere of influence, a demand that has been remaining unacceptable to Washington and its allies. Additionally, Russia also appears to recognize President Donald Trump’s strategic objective of distancing it from China. However, given China’s long-term stability and aspirations of an "eternal empire," it is perceived as a more reliable partner of Russia in the future. In contrast, Trump’s tenure is limited to a four-year term, which may lead Russia to adopt a transactional approach, prioritizing short-term gains while maintaining its long-term alignment with China. Consequently, Russia is likely to engage in strategic maneuvering that maximizes its immediate benefits without fully committing to a shift in alliances.

The Show Must Go On..

To summarize, for Russia, Trump’s return presents both opportunities and challenges. While a dramatic shift in U.S.-Russia relations is unlikely, the Kremlin sees potential for pragmatic engagement, particularly in negotiating sanctions relief. However, Moscow remains skeptical of Trump’s ability to override bipartisan hostility toward Russia, and it expects the Ukrainian conflict to persist under a policy of managed tension. The recent acceleration of negotiations, particularly the meeting in Saudi Arabia, indicates a shift toward active diplomatic engagement. Whether this will lead to a breakthrough or rather serve as a tactical maneuver remains to be seen. Ultimately, Russia’s strategy will likely be to navigate the evolving geopolitical landscape with caution, seeking openings for dialogue while maintaining its long-term objectives of reshaping European security and securing its regional interests. At present, it is increasingly difficult to understand who is leading and who is being led, Russia or the U.S? The pace and complexity of their interactions create a fluid and unpredictable political landscape, where mutual strategic engagement may prove to be short-lived. However, as long as the showman Trump is carrying the show, the show must go on…

The views expressed in this paper are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any affiliated institutions.