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China & India: Global South Partners or Himalayan Rivals?

Recording of the Panel Discussion on 23 September 2024

China and India are (at least in their self-portrayal) the two largest developing states and representatives of the “Global South”. They often found themselves on the same side in the failed Doha Round negotiations to reform the WTO, and have been part of the G20 and BRICS groups since their inception. In 2016 and 2017, India also joined the (China-led) Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). The so-called “Wuhan Spirit” around a first informal meeting between Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping in 2018 in central China was said to mark decidedly positive ties. At the same time, the two giants have found themselves at loggerheads over UN Security Council reform, nuclear (non-)proliferation, China’s close security ties with Pakistan, and enduring territorial disputes.

Bilateral relations have markedly soured since 2020, when an armed border skirmish in the Galwan Valley led to the death of multiple Indian and Chinese soldiers. In response, the Indian government banned a large number of Chinese apps to curb Beijing’s economic influence, and intensified cooperation with the US, Japan and Australia in the “Quadrilateral Security Dialogue”. Both sides have raced to improve infrastructure in border regions to put themselves in a more strategically favourable position.

Such developments lead to questions about China’s and India’s foreign and security policy strategy. How important is the bilateral relationship and cooperation in multilateral institutions for the two nuclear powers? How risk tolerant or averse are they in their (Himalayan) neighbourhood? In other words, how far would they go and what is the likelihood of armed conflict?

Discussants:
Justyna Szczudlik
Deputy Head of Research & Coordinator Asia-Pacific Program (The Polish Institute of International Affairs, PISM)

Jagannath Panda
Head of the Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs (SCSA-IPA) (Institute for Security & Development Policy, ISDP)

Moderator:
Thomas Eder
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