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The MAGA Comeback: Europe Braces for a New Trump Era

Commentary by Johannes Späth and Tobias Gerber
11 November 2024

The MAGA Comeback: Europe Braces for a New Trump Era

By Johannes Späth and Tobias Gerber

From New York businessman, to reality TV star, to 45th President of the United States, to instigator of a riot on the United States Capitol, to convicted felon, President Trump’s career has undoubtedly been a roller coaster. With yesterday’s election, he stands at the pinnacle of his career, elected the 47th President of the United States in a landslide victory. Europe is in shock and disbelief. What will the next four years of Trumpism bring? Protectionism? Trade wars? A deal with Putin without Ukraine? The end of NATO? Or maybe a peaceful solution in Ukraine? Peace in the Middle East?

The election results speak for themselves. Donald Trump has won all seven swing states (Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania). In addition, he has won the popular vote by a margin of about four million voters. His core electorate has expanded beyond the white working class, with notable inroads among Latino and black voters. Trump secured 13 percent of the black vote and 45 percent of the Latino vote, a significant increase from 2020.

Democrats underperformed nationally after a short, intense campaign that did not go as well as many had hoped. Kamala Harris was unable to distance herself from President Biden and was largely ineffective in interviews. The electorate’s desire for change was unmistakable in the polls, yet the Democratic Party made the curious choice to de facto champion a status quo campaign as the incumbent. Inflation and a surge in illegal immigration, coupled with two major international conflicts, the Middle East and Ukraine, were too much for the Democrats to overcome – at least in the short timeframe of 107 days.

Even in the counties where Harris won, Trump managed to significantly expand his base. Shockingly for Democrats, the blue state of New York swung 13 points his way. In a historic shift, he even flipped the Latino-majority Starr County, the "Gallic village" of Texas that had been a Democratic stronghold since 1896, signaling the strength of his working-class appeal, which now extends beyond the traditionally conservative, white, non-college-educated base.

But it’s not just the presidential election that’s a resounding success. Republicans won a majority in the Senate, picking up at least two seats in Ohio and West Virginia. Some races are still undecided, but it is possible that the Republicans could flip even more seats. If they do, Donald Trump would not even have to rely on moderate Republican votes in the Senate to pass his agenda. The ongoing battle for the House of Representatives is still too close to call, but even there the Republicans have a real chance of holding on to their slim majority.

The implications are clear: the MAGA movement, now inextricably linked to the identity of the Republican Party, is here to stay, making President Trump more powerful than ever.

Trump is expected to install only absolute and radical loyalists not only in his cabinet but also in the American bureaucracy. The infamous "Project 2025" seems to have already recruited suitable personnel loyal to President Trump and his views. These include the belief that the last presidential election was "stolen". Equally worrying is his alliance with billionaire Elon Musk or anti-vaxxer Robert F. Kennedy, whom he reportedly wants to make America’s "health czar". It may be hard to believe, but Donald Trump will be even less restrained than in his first term.

This is not good news for Europe. The relative calm and stability of the Biden years is over.

After all, if we are to believe Trump’s former national security adviser, John Bolton, Trump toyed with the idea of withdrawing from NATO in his first term. But even if this nightmare scenario is unlikely to materialize, Trump will surely demand higher defense spending from the Europeans, if only to appear tough at home.

The more immediate question, however, is what will happen to the war in Ukraine. Donald Trump has made dubious claims. First that he would resolve this war within 24 hours, later that it would be resolved before his inauguration on January 21. The truth is that nobody knows what he intends to do. Will he negotiate a deal with both Russia and Ukraine? Will he simply stop sending arms to Ukraine, essentially abandoning it? Will he increase the pressure on Putin by sending more advanced weaponry to Ukraine to force him to the negotiating table?

To be fair to Trump, he may be better suited to stop the war in Ukraine – not because of any Kissingerian diplomatic genius – but because he is unpredictable. And unpredictability has a deterring effect that will be even greater in his second term, since everyone knows that his advisers will not be as restraining of a factor as they were in his first term. He may speak the language that Putin understands.

What is unsettling for the European Union is his unpredictability, combined with the painful realization that Trump neither sees multilateral organizations as equal partners nor cares about the liberal values that for many Europeans are the essence of the transatlantic alliance.

On trade, President Trump is likely to reimpose his old tariffs on European exports to protect American industries. This could further damage the declining European economy. Germany, in particular, which is the most export-oriented economy in the European Union, may suffer under a Trump administration.

There is no way around it: Trump’s presidency will be a serious challenge. To withstand the volatility ahead, the EU must collectively identify its common interests and embrace the transactional dimension of the future transatlantic relations. A fragmented response and bilateral deals between EU member states and the US would undermine the EU’s leverage and create a "race to the bottom" that would erode European cohesion. Only through a collective approach can Europe effectively counterbalance Trump’s pressure. But it’s no secret that not all European capitals view this election result with dread. The proponents of illiberal democracy, such as a Viktor Orbán, may feel emboldened and even harder to handle. The road to consensus within the EU is sure to be bumpy.

The outcome of the U.S. presidential election is a call to action that the EU can no longer ignore. One can only hope that Trump’s victory will finally spur Europe to take decisive action on long-stalled policy goals, especially with regard to greater collective investment in security and defense. Forcing Europe out of its dependence on American leadership and into a new phase of self-reliance could indeed be a blessing in disguise – but only if Europe rises to the challenge. Whether it does remains to be seen.